updatewithfacts

With the elections only a few weeks away, I wanted to give a quick couple of notes. 1, I will do my best to put out a prediction roughly a week before the election. I do have some family business and ... View MoreWith the elections only a few weeks away, I wanted to give a quick couple of notes. 1, I will do my best to put out a prediction roughly a week before the election. I do have some family business and a job and other things to take care of but I will hopefully have that out in roughly 2 weeks. 2, It is incredibly important that local elections are also voted on. For example, if Lee Zeldin does the uphill climb of getting elected governor of New York, it would be extremely helpful if at least a few members of the state legislature flipped from blue to red. Even if he loses and Hochul remains governor, having a slimmer majority will help.

View Less

Does anyone have thoughts they wish to share on their local elections or primaries?

One of the more interesting developments in Governor races for 2022 is in Oregon. While still no guarantee that the R will win, the chances are much better than in recent years. The last super close e... View MoreOne of the more interesting developments in Governor races for 2022 is in Oregon. While still no guarantee that the R will win, the chances are much better than in recent years. The last super close election was in 2010, but elections since then have kept their vote share to at least 43% in each election. The red wave, a relatively strong third-party candidate who is was a more moderate D, the low approval rating of the current D governor (who is term-limited), and the R candidate being a former politician who is well-funded: all of this points to at least a decent chance of it flipping red. My sources and data point to, currently, around a 38-45% chance it flips.

View Less

Quite a few states are having HUGE levels of retirements. Granted, some of them are due to various things (seeking other offices, term-limited, passed away, etc.). But it is still shocking how many st... View MoreQuite a few states are having HUGE levels of retirements. Granted, some of them are due to various things (seeking other offices, term-limited, passed away, etc.). But it is still shocking how many states are having such a high turnover: quickly calculated that roughly 1/3 of Arizona and Maine's legislative bodies are not going to be there next term. 2022 is not only the Senate and House: the governorships, the legislative chambers, mayors, town councils, and so much more is an opportunity for every voting citizen in almost every state to make their voice heard. And for the few areas not having elections this year, feel free to make your voice heard on here and anywhere else you wish. D's are right about one thing: ocean levels will be rising but it wil be an R flood.

View Less