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Champ
on January 1, 2026
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Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡
@shanaka86
January 1, 2026.
Silver trades at $130 in Tokyo.
Silver trades at $80 in Shanghai.
Silver trades at $71 in New York.
Same metal. Same day. Same ounce.
One of these prices is a lie.
Today China locked the vault. Export licenses now required. 44 approved firms. 80-tonne minimum production to qualify. Sixty percent of global refined supply just got ring-fenced behind a government stamp.
Elon Musk on Sunday: “This is not good.”
He understated it.
Standard arbitrage closes an eight dollar spread in hours. Ship metal from cheap to expensive. Pocket the difference.
That spread has been open for weeks.
It is not closing.
Because arbitrage requires metal that can move. The metal cannot move. Shanghai inventories at decade lows. COMEX registered down 70 percent since 2020. 820 million ounces consumed beyond production in five years. One full year of global mine supply that no longer exists.
U.S. banks just flipped net long silver for the first time in recorded history.
They stopped fighting the physical market.
They are front-running the reprice.
The paper price is not the price of silver. It is the settlement price for leveraged speculators trading claims on metal that does not exist in deliverable form.
Shanghai knows what silver costs when a factory needs it to ship product.
New York knows what silver costs when a trader needs to settle in cash.
Two markets. Two prices. One is real.
Western spot hits $90 by March 31 or I delete this post.
The door closed today.
Screenshot this.
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11:15 PM · Dec 31, 2025
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